| Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty
How does the risk of default in California or Thailand get spread throughout the world, causing problem in money market funds in Europe and Florida? Yes, we can trace the linkages now, but was it possible to predict the crisis beforehand? And can we use what we learn to predict and hopefully hedge ourselves from the next crisis? Why do these things seem to be happening with more frequency? This week we are going to look at some economic theories which will give us some insight into the above questions. As it turns out, the more that individuals hedge their risk in economic markets - the larger the network - the more the entire system is put at risk. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in. Before we get to the economic theory, let's review part of a letter I wrote in April of 2006 discussing chaos theory, as it will give us a useful mind picture to understand the latter part of the letter.
Pre-Independence Euphoria in Kosovo
It means a new identity and a new future for Kosovo," said Agim Kastrati, a 19-year-old law student who marched through Pristina demanding a declaration of statehood early in 2008. European Union foreign ministers meeting Monday in Brussels, Belgium, said they had "virtual unanimity" on recognizing Kosovo's eventual independence, with Cyprus the sole holdout. And Kosovo's outgoing prime minister demanded an "immediate and permanent" conclusion to the ethnic Albanian majority's drive for statehood , a quest that led to the 1998-99 war with Serbia and spawned nearly a decade of political and economic limbo under U.N. and NATO administration. "No more delays. No more deals," said rally organizer Burim Balaj, as about 3,000 demonstrators outside parliament set off firecrackers, waved U.S.
Web scams can bring holiday headaches
Just in time for Cyber Monday and the online holiday-shopping rush, high-tech Grinches are cranking up their fraud attacks with a new round of bogus e-mail, identity-theft experts say.
Have you won $2 million in a Christmas sweepstakes held by Coca-Cola in the United Kingdom? Can you make big bucks just by cashing checks for an Irish researcher, Chinese exporter or rich oil consultant in Dubai? Is there a problem with your account at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, eBay or PayPal?
No. But you might think so if you fall for some of the recent e-mail scams infesting the Internet.
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Wheel and deal
The slogan, "Let the buyer beware," truly fits the Internet. Online merchandise often is sold without warranties or guarantees and the world's largest online shopping mall has no substitute for the helpful advice experts can give at a local retail store.But security measures are in place to reduce the odds of rip-offs, and people who spend a small fortune (that's me) at the shop down the street shouldn't feel guilty if they look online for a deal on the gear they need. Whether you fish, hunt, kayak, camp or devote time to any one of a thousand other pastimes, eBay has it. Heck, a co-worker just stopped by my desk to say her parents are selling their house on eBay.As an experiment for this story, I had a friend, Andy Sweet of Bloomington, use his eBay expertise to buy parts to build a bicycle with top-of-the-line Shimano Dura Ace components.
Roanoke County races feature diverse candidates
Election Day: Nov. 6, 2007 Voting Find out where to vote, who's on the ballot and get directions to your local polling place. Find out if you are registered to vote on the Virginia State Board of Elections website Money Search campaign finance contributions through the Virginia Public Access Project Candidates See video and read coverage of candidates in the New River Valley Coverage Read more Roanoke Times political coverage Political coverage from the New River Valley Current .
One Woman's World
The recent flap over the raunchy remarks of radio talk-show host, Don Imus, is, once again, much ado about very little. And the infallible truth of that remark is based on Simple Psychology 101: Words cannot wound us unless we let them. There is rarely a day that passes in my free-woman life that somewhere, some man makes some derogatory remark like "them f--king women libbers." His actions can hurt me. His words never will. I get the word-opinions in e-mails: "You make me sick." "Women like you are what's wrong with the world." "If you women would stay home where you belong there wouldn't be so many unemployed men." I line my birdcage with the mail or work it into the fertilizer for my rose bushes - and then I stand up and loudly defend any man or woman's right to say what they please about you, about me, and about how impossible it is these days to find a poor politican.
One more thing cellphones could do: Replace wallets
Convenient? You bet. Secure? Companies working on this new system say it is rock solid. Encrypted payment information travels through the air from the phone to the scanner. The system is based on "contactless" technology already in some smart cards — credit cards and key fobs embedded with chips so they can be used instead of swiping a magnetic credit card. Chips are finding their way into driver's licenses, passports and other forms of identification, and contactless cards are used in many transit systems. "It's relatively easy to make cellphones very secure devices," said Allen Weinberg, managing partner at Glenbrook Partners, a Menlo Park, Calif., financial services and electronic payments consulting firm. He said the encryption is "as good as or better than what you do with an ATM or at-home banking.
Four killed in road accident
A trip to Rajasthan proved fatal for four friends who met with an accident today morning near Guman village on the Ludhiana-Bathinda road. They were returning home after their four-day trip to Rajasthan. All occupants of a car (PB 10 BC 5646) died when their car dashed against a truck (RJ- 31- G- 2561). The truck, loaded with potatoes, was heading towards Raikot from Ludhiana. The killed have been identified as Kewal Krishan, a resident of Pavitter Nagar, Hebbowal Kalan, Gurcharan Singh of Aman Vihar of Chandan Nagar, Dinesh Goyal, a resident of Shastri Nagar, and Sanjeev Gupta, a resident of Kichlu Nagar, Ludhiana. The accident took place at 2.30 a.m. The truck driver managed to flee. While, the three occupants of the car died on the spot while the fourth, Dinesh Goyal, succumbed to his injuries at Apollo Hospital today morning.
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